Decoding Pacquiao-Marquez 3: A Critique

good vid actually

conclusion: i think the vid has overanalyzed it.

discussion: i am of the opinion that the current pac or even the 2003 version, is more than enough to beat juan manuel marquez (jmm). the fight is more psychological than technical. remember that jmm is a kind of fighter who thrives in a very controlled environment while pac is a kind of fighter that imposes dominance through chaos, confusion and all out kamikazee attacks. that is pac first and foremost, an ultimate assault machine. Take it out from pac and you take 50% of his chance to win.

its stupid to go technical against a seasoned technical fighter. no way you can dominate jmm in his game, especially if youve got a very poor fundamentals in defense. by simply learning how to cut off rings wont work against jmm. review the whole fight and youll see that pac has jmm in his range right after some exchanges for most fo the fight. but it was very frustrating to see him not unloading because his primal consideration has suddenly shifted to defense.

that was how jmm controlled the fight. he forced pac to rethink his punches wc effectively lessened his  aggression. again, pac was all about aggression, you take it away from him, you diminish his chance to dominate the game.

jmm was not really a very mobile boxer. all he showed on the 3 pac fights was his ability to beautifully coordinate his counters with his footworks (maintaining distance). he was not the tactician and the very mobile boxer in the mold of floyd and whitaker. he was, first and foremost, a simple counter puncher with a very linear footwork. he cant fight backwards either, he needs to plant his feet before he can unload. pac can simply bulldoze his way through jmm. pero, psychological na, pac just cant storm in to exert his dominance for fear of getting caught by jmms right counters.

excerp from an old article:
Pacquiao vs. Hatton: Solving the Pacquiao Puzzle
By Erik Sarmiento Dela Cruz.

"Taking a look at Pacquiao's first and only credible defeat (his first two losses were flukes as he reported on both fights dead on the weight), Morales plausible performance in March 2005 could be best attributed to his right hand, either delivered as a lead or as a counter, which he threw with surgical precision and perfect timing.

The game plan he displayed on that fight was basic and simple: jab, jab, straight right and left hook. The simple game plan, which he brilliantly adapted on the whirlwind approach of the his pressure forward fighting opponent, has firmly established the pattern of the whole fight: Pacquiao would try to overwhelm him with his sharp and fast punches, after withering the assault with his great defensive capability and remarkable durability, he would storm back with lead rights and left hooks that would effectively drive the Filipino into brief tactical defensive posture, forcibly backpedaling Pacquiao at sometimes.

Of course, there was that nasty cut above his right eye suffered by Pacquiao at the fifth stanza of the fight which saw him fighting half-blind for more than half of the game. Taking nothing away from the iron-willed Mexican, Morales was a defensive genius as he was an offensive monster. He kept his left guard up and elbow in, which effectively blocked Pacquiao's left leads and permitted him to time his opponent with stinging counter right hooks. Such game plan we would see again working for Morales at their first rematch, until he ultimately gave in under blizzards of hard shots at round 10.

Morales' remarkable capacity to absorb tremendous blows has placed him in a better position to carry out such simple yet very effective game plan with a great degree of success relative to what has offered by his compatriots who also fought Pacquiao. That ability has allowed him to negate not only Pacquiao's phenomenal power but his extraordinary speed as well. It is interesting to note that Roach and Pacquiao was not able to solve (or did they opt not to?) the counter-punching game plan of Morales—which says a lot about Pacquiao's questionable ability to shift game plans and adapt to his opponents' style. To cap it further, Morales slick right hand has been very elemental in putting Pacquiao at a defensive stance, albeit briefly, for key moments of the fight, a territory that is very unfamiliar to the Filipino who has learned only to be the aggressor in his entire career.

The right hand was also very elemental to the impressive performances displayed by Marquez in his two controversial bouts against the Filipino superstar. The right hand, which he delivered either as a counter or as a lead, has punished Pacquiao for the whole 24 rounds that they fought. It has allowed him to rebound from the crashing knockdowns he suffered on both meetings, especially on the first fight where Pacquiao decked him three times in the opener, to eventually put up very-very close fights which could have gone either way. It is very interesting to note that Marquez has actually outlanded Pacquiao on that dramatic opening round of their first meeting where he was able to connect 42% of all his power punches compared to 35% of Pacquiao."